Smart Money Flows — Week 21

The risk-off rotation we flagged last week has reversed. Smart money flipped back into DeFi blue chips after the prior week's sharp distribution, with select stablecoin and L1 names also seeing renewed accumulation. The strongest conviction signal of the week landed in the DePIN/compute corner a clean inflow paired with a +72% price move, the kind of setup that tends to mark the start of a sector rotation rather than the end of one.

Last week's AI Agent coins are now showing up on the distribution side. Smart money is trimming into strength across several names that led the prior tape, while a fresh memecoin surge is unfolding with much broader breadth than the isolated pumps we saw in Week 20, typical retail-driven phase with thin smart money participation.

Watch list and full token-level data inside the full report.

Week 21 was the mirror image of W20's risk-off shock. Easing US-Iran tensions and progress on a Strait of Hormuz resolution sent Brent crude tumbling ~9% to ~$100/bbl, kept the 10Y yield contained at 4.56%, and dropped CME FedWatch's rate-hike odds from 45% to ~33%. Traditional markets ripped: the S&P 500 logged its 8th straight weekly gain (longest since 2023) and the Dow set a new record close. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on Fri May 22 with minimal market reaction since his hawkish bias was already priced.

Crypto decoupled and consolidated. BTC held its critical $75K support for a second week, ending flat at $77,377, with ETH -0.8%, SOL +0.8% and BNB +1.9%. The real action was narrow rotation: NVIDIA's blockbuster earnings reignited crypto-AI (NEAR +60%, WLD +29%, AKT +26%), while HYPE (+39%) and RWA names MORPHO (+33%) and ONDO (+26%) led their categories. Sentiment edged up to Neutral (41) from 38.

Get the full breakdown, charts, macro news, and top narratives in this week’s report.

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BTC continues with a bullish trend reversal. Medium-term trend has already reversed to Uptrend. Price has also broken out of Channel Down, above $75K key level, which was also successfully tested and the resistance now turned into support.

Price has run into another stiff resistance zone: $80K - $83K (200 SMA), where it got rejected 2x so far. This is a critical juncture for BTC's trend direction. We'd be buyers on pullbacks to that $75K support level.