The Federal Reserve just delivered its first rate hike since 2023 — a 25 bps move lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Bitcoin is holding near $76K, equities slightly down, and the tape looks almost bored.
That calm is the easy read. The harder — and more important — read is that the Fed's stance shifted today, even if the price hasn't caught up yet.
Fed Funds Interest Rates
What the Fed actually did
25 bps hike to 3.75%–4.00% — the first increase in more than three years.
Unanimous. The committee voted 12-0. That matters: back in July, the Fed held for a fifth straight meeting while three members dissented in favor of hiking. Today the whole committee got on the same page — and moved.
It was priced in. Futures had the hike at better than 90% odds going in (prediction markets ~83%), which is exactly why the immediate reaction was muted. A telegraphed move rarely shocks the tape.
The twist: this is a tilt, not a one-off
The Fed didn't just hike — it signaled more tightening ahead. That's the difference between a single calibration and the start of a cycle, and it's the question that actually drives crypto over the coming weeks.
Read it in context: we've spent 2024–2025 in a cutting cycle. Today the direction of travel reversed. Markets absorbed the number because they saw it coming — but the path just got more hawkish, and the path is what gets repriced next, not the headline.
The honest framing: "priced in" is not the same as "over."
Fed’s hawkish tilt creates a modest headwind for BTC and crypto. We’ll need to be more cautious with trade setups and have a balanced Long / Short book of trades.
If BTC breaks below $75K support, it it’s likely to revisit $70K next, which is also the 200-day Moving Average (200 SMA):
See BTC and other expert trade setups.
No matter how BTC trades in the next few days or weeks, the long term trend remains clear.
As long as USD purchasing power continues to lose from dilution (money printing), BTC will continue to gain attention and $$ allocation from investors.
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