Will Fed hike rates today? This year?

Today FOMC will announce its interest-rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a Fed Chair Warsh press conference at 2:30 PM ET. 

Markets expect the FOMC to leave interest rates unchanged, holding the range at 3.5%–3.75%, but the meeting carries more tension than a typical hold.

There are mixed macro data signals: CPI in May declined and jobs data cooled in June, which should keep Fed dovish and leave rates unchanged.

But oil prices increased 20% in July, which could put pressure on inflation in the coming months and make the Fed hawkish (rate hike).

For the rest of 2026, markets are still expecting at least 1 rate hike (increase) with 90% probability. That's moved up from 80% probability a month ago. That would be negative for BTC and alts.

Contrarian view:  we still believe that Fed will NOT hike rates in 2026 nor in 2027 because the oil price impact on inflation is temporary and there's a n underlying deflationary force brewing due to AI driven productivity boom.

If we’re right, then the market will gradually (2026 / 2027) re-price BTC and alts upwards to reflect higher probability of rates staying unchanged or even declining in 2027.

With so many unknowns, many traders are focusing on lower time intervals.  Instead of trading on a daily (1D) time interval, they trade on 15M, 1H or 4H intervals.

That's because trades on daily (1D) interval can take several days or weeks to play out.  And much can change during that time!

Meanwhile, trades on 15M, 1H or 4H intervals only last for several hours.

One of the easiest ways to generate trading ideas on lower time intervals is using altFINS' AI Chart Patterns, which automatically detect 26 chart patterns across 1D, 4H, 1H, and 15M time intervals.

We're talking channels, Inverse Head and Shoulders, wedges, resistance breakouts, etc.

Check it out yourself!  Go to Chart Patterns and change the time interval:

The advantage of lower time intervals is that there's less risk of outside factors like macro news or Trump tweet disrupting the trade signal.  

And you get faster results because trades last just a few hours.

Disadvantage of trading on lower time intervals is that it requires more attention to monitor trades with shorter duration.  And the profits are usually smaller than swing trading on 1D interval.  

But the success rate could be higher.

TIP: You can create an alert for Chart Patterns and receive them on iOS or Android mobile app!  Don't ever miss another trading opportunity.  Here's how.

altFINS’ AI chart pattern recognition engine identifies 26 trading patterns across multiple time intervals (15 min, 1h, 4h, 1d), saving traders a ton of time.

You can filter chart patterns by type, profit potential, success rate, buy or sell direction, exchange, and more.

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altFINS’ API is the only API that includes 150+ indicators and 130+ signal types already pre-calculated so you don’t waste time or credits when developing, backtesting, etc.

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