Oil prices have shot up again above $100 a barrel due to escalation of US / Iran conflict.
This puts pressure on inflation and interest rates again, which could derail the recent BTC rally.
The main reason for recent strength in BTC was that inflation (CPI) was declining and the threat of FED rate hikes diminished.
But the rise in oil prices puts that narrative at risk.
Brent Oil Futures Rising Again
BTC pays no yield. When real rates rise, holding a non-yielding asset costs more (opportunity cost), and discount rates on long-duration/speculative assets go up.
Rising rates also drain system liquidity, and BTC sits at the far end of the risk curve — it gets sold first when liquidity tightens.
US - 10-year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level in 18 months
Hedging with Short Sell positions.
Maybe it's a good idea to add some Short Sell positions to hedge long positions in case the oil price keeps rising and ahead of the Fed meeting next week (July 28-29).
There are a few ways to go about it:
1. Screener - coins in Neutral or Downtrend that have bounced up to their Resistance but are likely to get rejected there and resume their Downtrend. See here.
2. Screener - coins in Downtrend, breaking their support (see here)
3. Chart Patterns - Sell signals in Downtrend
DOGE is an example identified by both (2) and (3) as price is in Dowtrend and broke below yet another support, making a new 52-week low.
Signals Summary (Bounced up in Downtrend)
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